The Scale of the Challenge

Today I went to an interesting seminar about climate change organised by the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. After the presentations (one on the science and one on the security implications of climate change - both very interesting but I won't go into the detail here) there was a panel debate with four Swedish politicians - Sofia Arkelsten from the Moderate (Conservative) party, the Left party's Jens Holm, Claes Västerteg from the Centre party (former agrarian party, now small business party) and Social democrat Anders Ygeman.

Their first task was to envision a Sweden eleven years from now, in 2020...

...that would have had to reduce emissions by 50% compared to 2009 levels*. In the scenario emissions trading is not allowed and since it's only eleven years away we cannot count on much of the new technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or electric cars to have come through the pipeline yet, or on any new nuclear plants having been built (or at least not to be in operation yet).

So what did our group of politicians come up with?

• - Transport - the main quick fix as these represent a large chunk of our emissions - is very, very expensive. The tax on petrol is at least 27 SEK per liter. We have not seen the benefits of investment in the rail sector yet.
• - Taxes and other economic instruments are our main tools. A massive tax on CO2 is in place. Aviation and heavy transport by lorries are subject to further levies. All cities have a congestion tax.
• - We heat our homes with electricity - biofuels (still) emit too much and are thus costly considering the high CO2 tax in place.
• - We are moving to the cities as urban areas are more energy efficient. More effective use of space means that - by building smarter and denser - we don't need to travel as much and waste collection, sewage and other logistics are also more efficient.
• - Usually we can't afford to go on vacation but if we do we stay away longer.
• - We have stopped eating meat as it is too costly from a CO2 perspective**, with the exception of game and some grazing animals.
• - Renovations and refurbishment of homes that improve energy efficiency and/or reduce emissions, e.g. solar panels, insulation, are tax deductible.
• - We are discussing closing down industries in Sweden to reach the goal but we are concerned that will just move emissions elsewhere. We need to take a global perspective.

Radical as it may sound it illustrates well the scale of the problem. If we are to stop the increase in global average temperatures at two degrees this may be the only way to go.

They politicians went on discussing if society will succeed making a change (even if not as drastic and radical as the above), what the necessary changes in the economy and in consumption patterns will be and how we can consume without destroying the planet, but that's another post!

* This would be tougher than any of the targets that the EU has committed too so far or that are on the table in the climate change negotiations. Sweden's commitment is 40% by 2020 on 1990 levels.
**Today, 2009, emissions from meat production is equal that of 4 million cars on Swedish streets.