Non Constitution

The first results are in and it looks like France has voted non to the EU constitution. Sadly so, in my opinion. However, this does not need to be 'the end of the EU', as some people seem to think.

A few weeks back I attended a seminar on the EU organised by the Swedish government, where Magnus Rohback from the (Swedish) Prime Minister's Office presented his thoughts on the future of the EU in the light of the French referendum.

He identified the following points as the main issues right now:
1) The ratification of the Constitution
2) The 2007-13 budget negotiations
3) Further development and realisation of the internal market (the Services Directive, common rules for financial markets, state aid, consumer protection, etc.)
4) Common actions for sustainable growth, employment, environment, etc.
5) Enlargement
6) The implementation of the Hague Programme, i.e. asylum, migration, judicial cooperation, mainly combatting organised cross-border crime and terrorism)
7) The EU's international role (cooperation with Russia, Iraq, the Middle East, the WTO Doha round, the UN Millenium conference, etc.)

Mr Rohback mentioned that one of the reasons for the Constitution was that it was seen as a way to manage and make functionable, an enlarged Union (remember that behind the Constitution Treaty is three years of work). However, enlargement (+10) has taken place and so far it has not affected the EU negatively. On the contrary, it has made procedures more austere, disciplined and effective.

Even so, the political significance of a French rejection is huge:
- the legislative process will lose pace or even stop;
- it will become increasingly difficult to reach hard compromises;
- the process of further enlargement will be increasingly complicated (enlargement being one of the reasons for French refusal);
- there is risk that the Union become introverted, affecting its international role.

But even with a French no, the process will go on (and should go on, I believe). The EU has gone through periods of sclerosis before, which doesn't necessarily need to be a bad thing. It is a time of consolidation, of catching up. The work (see points 2-7 above) will continue even if the bigger visions have been momentarily lost. Throughout the history of the EU there has been a constant pull between visions and the every-day work of implementing EU policy. In the 1970s and early 1980s there was a period of stagnation, which originated in a questioning of the identity and purpose of the EU, partly due to the accession of the UK to the Union. Today we may be in a similar downturn; however, it is NOT the end.